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News and views on Israel, Zionism and the war on terrorism.

May 13, 2003

Time for Optimism

I recently posted Symposium in which the gurus of the Right, John Hawkins, Charles Johnson, Ben Shapiro, John Little, Damian Penny and Allison Kaplan Sommer gave forth. Ben Shapiro was furthest on the right and in favour of transfer. The rest thought it wasn’t in the cards but did favour transfer of extremists. All in all they were pessimistic and didn’t have a solution. Terror would continue.

I beg to differ. There is not only reason to be optimistic but also confident.

The US has broken the mould and introduced instability throughout the world. Before 9/11 both the US and Israel kept getting beat up with their respective policies of containment and things were going from bad to worse. The US and Israel were in retreat and anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism were on the rise. The situation as it then was unacceptable. The EU worshipped at the idol of “stability” and multilateralism. Yet the Islamic world was a seething cauldron with multiple wars on its borders and threatened insurrections within many of them. America opted for instability, change and unilateralism. No one can put Humpty Dumpty together again. At least not the way it was.

American foreign policy for the last fifty years, was based on the following principals;
1. Maintain relationships with the regimes in the oil rich countries Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran no matter how corrupt or oppressive so long as the oil kept flowing and American companies kept making huge profits. This system received its first shock with the Iranian revolution, its second with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and its third with the Saudi backed attack of 9/11. Key among these relationships was the Saudi one.
2. As a result of this policy, the financial benefits many high placed Americans received and the close relationship with the Bush family and business relationships, Saudi Arabia had much influence over American Middle East policy.
3. America always protected Israel and kept it strong while at the same time prevented Israel from winning. They also sacrificed Israel time and again to serve their own vision for the Middle East which vision was based on maintaining their relationships with the Arabs.
4. multilateralism and coalition building were the vogue.
My optimism is buoyed by the winds of change that are now sweeping the world.

Iraq
America has 150,000 servicemen in Iraq bordering on five Arab countries and Iran. To solidify their hold, they have to neuter Iran, Syria and even Saudi Arabia. Oil production will drastically increase over the next two years thereby lowering the price of oil and the power of Saudi Arabia and the dependence of America. They will open up the society and remove incitement from the curricula. Iraq is no longer a military force or threat and no longer supports Palestinian terror.

Iran
Discussion are already underway to cause a separation of Mosque and State. Iran is in the midst of a debate whether their interests are best served by being confrontational or cooperative. Guess which one they will pick. A survey was done showing 75% of Iranians are pro American and the Student Protest Movement is on the move. Iran has already notified Hezbollah that it won’t be supplying them with weapons any more. Whether that sticks remains to be seen

Syria
Will be forced to get on the “right side of history” and will go on the dole like Egypt did. Already America is turning the economic and diplomatic screws on them. They are starting to crack.

EU
It is already cracked. France Belgium and Luxemberg wanted to set up a coalition of countries that would stand in opposition to the US. This coalition was to include Arafat, Syria, Iran and before the invasion Iraq. New Europe has abandoned them and so has Germany and Russia. This breakdown will have repercussions in Iran and Syria as they see their strategic depth diminish. As a result they will accommodate to the US.

India
India has just this week proposed to the US a strategic coalition or axis consisting of India, Israel and the US. To move this along they have reached an accommodation with Pakistan. They see this coalition as a bulwark to aggressive Islam.

Turkey
Although it didn’t support the US in the war, its ties to Israel and the US remain strong.

Caspian Sea area.
Afghanistan is under US control and oil interests are dictating who gets in bed with whom. Russia is already on board cooperating with the US in joint projects and most of the countries bordering on the Sea, likewise. Turkey has great interest in this and will definitely be on board. That means that Iran is surrounded by pro-American forces. They can’t hang on for too long.

Saudi Arabia
Even with all its support for terror worldwide and for the spread of Wahabbism, they were attacked by terrorists four time in the last month. To add to their woes, the US troops are pulling out and oil prices are dropping and will continue to drop. It needs America more then ever now and America needs it less than ever.

Palestinians.
The only reason they have power is because they have so much support from the EU, the UN, Syria and Iran. As this support disintegrates, as it will, so will its resistance. America also had a major hand in maintaining them in place and so it backed the Roadmap and wouldn’t let Arafat be harmed.. But it was DOA. I believe that America will abandon the Palestinians maximum demands and dictate to them what they can have. It hasn’t happened yet but it will.

USA
They must concern themselves first with stablizing Iraq and now Saudi Arabia too. They will also have to deal with Iran and Syria. No time left for “Palestine”. I think that the US will further distance themselves from the Old ME and will see the solution to the Palestinian situation entirely differently. Thus Israel will come out ahead. The road to peace in the territories runs through Bagdad, Damascus, Tehran and Riyadh before it gets to Jerusalem. There it becomes a cakewalk.

What, me worry. No way.