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News and views on Israel, Zionism and the war on terrorism.

May 01, 2003

Palestine is Not on the Road Map (Originally posted April 24, 2002)

the law of unintended consequences

Why do I say this?

The Road Map is predicated on Mazem and Dahlan ending terror. It won't happen. In part because the terror masters, including Arafat, won't let it happen and in part because Mazem and Dahlan are not prepared to go all the way which will lead to civil war. They only intend to "make an effort".

Contrary to all the optimism being expressed, particularly in Europe, this "achievement" will be still born. Not only that, it will lead to the end of the illusion of a two state solution. No one will try again least of all the US. Bush's vision will turn out to be a mirage. Other plans such as transfer and the Jordanian option will be put on the table.

The reason why I am so sure is that Oslo, Mitchell, Tenet and now the Road Map were all intended to bring about the end of terror. Oslo brought more terror. Tenent and Mitchell were non starters. The Road Map will be, also.

Europe reasoned that the Palestinians must be given "hope" before they will abandon terror. Now that the Road Map is to be released, there is no sign that it will have the intended result. The only thing left for Europe to argue is that we must give in to whatever it takes or there will be no solution even if that means the destruction of the State of Israel. No tears would be shed.

From the point of view of the US, it will abandon attempts to work out a two state solution. It will no doubt table ideas for an alternate solution. This will become a major issue in the upcoming presidential elections.

The present situation is untenable. Containment is too costly in lives and in money. Another tactic is necessary. The separation wall will continue to be built but not along the green line. It will move east to include all major settlements such as Ariel. Expulsions will be commonplace.

A new day is dawning.