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News and views on Israel, Zionism and the war on terrorism.

April 01, 2003

Will America suffer from premature evacuation? (Ted Belman)

America will win the battle but will it win the war?

Normally, I am very optimistic but I am beginning to have my doubts. America will be victorious in Iraq just as Israel was victorious in all its wars with the Arabs. Unfortunately for Israel, its victories didn’t win the peace. I am afraid the US will suffer the same outcome.

The Arabs have shown that they will never accept Israel in their midst and not just Israel in the territories. They will stop at nothing and will fight forever to achieve their goal of getting Israel out of the ME. Time and again, Arafat has thumbed his nose at the US and he is still there. This intafadah has cost the Palestinians dearly but they still want it to go on. No matter how many terrorists Israel stops, more come. Oslo brought Israel close to ruin and the Road Map promises to finish the job. They are premised on the illusion that the Arabs will accept a rational solution to the conflict short of Israel’s destruction.

America will soon find it self in occupation of Iraq. Hussein didn’t cave in, in advance of the war preferring to bury the Americans in Iraq. The Palestinians know they need the US to help them get concessions from Israel but that doesn’t stop them from supporting Hussein and sending martyrs. Syria gets a stern warning and they too continue to defy the US and send men and equipment to support Iraq. Al Qaeda has also joined the fray sending a large contingent of their people to Iraq. There is no shortage of volunteers to participate in the fight to defeat America. The Arabs will use guerrilla warfare in Iraq and terrorism in America to achieve their liberation.

If anything is clear the Arabs are going to resist America for "as long as it takes" to use Bush’s phrase. Russia let Germany in, only to later defeat them. Russia let Napoleon in, only to later defeat him. North Vietnam outlasted America. Examples abound of where invaders bit off more than they could chew, especially where the population is hostile and energized to overcome, as the Arabs are to America.

America’s only hope is that they win the hearts and minds of the Shi’ites as they liberate them. If the Shi’ites embrace the American liberation then they will reject the terrorists among them. All is not that simple because Iran may try to replace American influence with its own influence. The Kurds will stay loyal in the north and can govern themselves leaving only the Sunnis in the centre. That’s where the population can be expected to be hostile to America and where terrorism will flourish.

The Arabs will be aided and abetted by the entire anti-war crowd and the liberal press.

What hope is there for America? What hope is there for Israel? Will the Road Map that America seems to be determined to make public help them win friends? I think not. Will it help them bring peace to Israel or the ME? I think not. How will they get Syria to bend to their will if Syria is prepared to suffer a great deal of damage to their country as the Palestinians and Iraqis are. This war could well destabilize Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt in a way that is not in America’s interest.

If America comes to the conclusion that their ultimate goals are not achievable, they will settle for destroying WMD and then install a Shiite regime in the south that is dependant on them and a Kurdish regime in the North that is dependant on them and whoever they can in Bagdad. Then they will get the hell out. It will all have been for naught with more negative fallout then positive benefits.

That will leave Israel in a worse place than before the War. The Arabs will feel emboldened and Israel will be road kill on the Road Map.

I remember when the US was in Vietnam and losing badly, they wondered how they could get out without losing more than they could bear. They were finally forced to just get out and bear the cost. What will happen here? They will certainly be conflicted over the cost benefit of staying or of going. Will they stay the coarse no matter what the pain because the cost or retreating would be too much to bear? Will they stay the coarse for 10 years or suffer from premature evacuation.

Time will tell but the signs are ominous.