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News and views on Israel, Zionism and the war on terrorism.

April 07, 2003

To the Victor go the Spoils

DebkaFile has a major article today and how the US will rule Iraq and keep the UN out. I have just extracted part of it but recommend you read it all.
[...]For now, the Pentagon, which rules the war arena and the Iraqi scene as a whole has placed a keep out sign for State Department officials bent on taking up posts in the interim administration.

No Handouts for War Opponents

3. The governments who opposed the American war in Iraq will be barred from partaking in its fruits. They fall into two groups. The first, led by France, Germany, Russia and the other nations, is seen as having fought the United States every inch of the road to the war, placing obstacles in every international forum, including the UN and NATO, and continuing to place cogs in the war wheel. (Just what I have always maintained. Well, almost always)

The Arab governments who supported the American war effort belong to the second group of nations clamoring for a say in post-war Iraq. They are led by Saudi Arabia which, despite initial anti-war declarations, its de facto ruler, Prince Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz, subsequently opened up the kingdom’s bases and air space to the passage of US troops and the staging of assaults in Iraq. Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak followed the same pattern of conduct. The big military base at Cairo-West and the Suez Canal became the two principal logistical arteries carrying US personnel and supplies to the combat units into the war arena.

Post-war Iraq Key to Larger Scheme

All these demands and Tony Blair’s attempts to reconcile the diametrically opposed European, Arab and American approaches on Iraq will most likely fall on deaf ears with the US President. Bush and his team will reply that they did not set out to conquer one of the richest and most important Arab nations and expel its tyrannous regime in order to hand out plums to its adversaries – or even for private gain. Above all, the Bush administration has set out a blueprint for a new world order to rise after international terror is vanquished. Iraq’s post-war structure is meant to stand as a prototype for the next stages of this broad scheme.

That being the case, Bush will not be inclined to heed Tony Blair, Saud al Faisal, Hosni Mubarak, Jacques Chirac, Vladimir Putin, Gerhard Schroeder or Koffi Anan – either their views or their demands to play a significant role in the rebuilding of Iraq.

The same world leaders are just as unlikely to be afforded the lead role they seek in the diplomacy for settling the Israel-Palestinian conflict and forging a peace, a process allotted a space in the same broad scheme charted by the Bush presidency. (What have I been telling you)

DEBKAfile’s Palestinian sources report a showdown last Thursday, April 3, between Yasser Arafat and the first Palestinian prime minister-designate, Abu Mazen, attended also by the Palestinian Authority’s incumbent interior minister Hani al Hassen.

Back from a few days in the Gaza Strip, Abu Mazen asked to be relieved of the appointment. Arafat told him angrily he could not accept an historical appointment one minute and drop it the next. Sources close to Abu Mazen reveal that he has despaired of making inroads on Arafat’s powers and acquiring any real authority. And, as long as Arafat is in charge, Palestinian terrorism will continue to surge, closing the door to reform, an accommodation with Israel and any change in the fortunes of the Palestinian people.

At present, Israel lives with between 50 and 60 suicide terror alerts per day! Most are only averted by the presence of Israeli forces in very Palestinian urban center and constant round-ups, searches and surprise raids against terrorist strongholds.

Even if President Bush had decided to meet Tony Blair, the Arabs and the Europeans halfway by forcing the Quartet’s road map unamended down Israel’s throat, Arafat and his terror machine would sabotage any progress towards a settlement. (Like Abba Eban always said "Arafat never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity.")
If Debka has got it right, that my unifying theory is wrong insofar as Bush having agreed to pacify the Arabs. And Powell is also wrong in what he has been saying. It won't be the first time for either of us. We'll have to see this one play out.