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News and views on Israel, Zionism and the war on terrorism.

April 26, 2003

Israel's Strategy after the Iraq War

The Jerusalem Centre for Public Affairs,(JCPA) lays it all out. I have just extracted a few sentances. Be sure to read it all.
The ultimate goal (of the Iraq War) is the Middle East, the Arab world, and the Muslim world. Iraq will be the first step in this direction; winning the war against terrorism means structurally changing the entire area.

Removing the threat of an eastern coalition (Iraq and Syria) alters the entire Israeli position regarding a war from the east. With the Iraqi threat removed, Israel could conceivably adopt a more lenient stance regarding future deployment of forces in the Jordan Valley.

Though Syria will maintain its capability, its situation necessarily changes when the country east of Syria is no longer likely to be in any future coalition with Syria. Thus, another consequence of the war will be the indirect reduction of the Syrian threat.

Israel's coerced adoption of the road map would severely compromise its achievements to date in its war against terrorism, enabling Arafat and the Palestinians to emerge as the big winners of the war in Iraq. American agreement to replace President Bush's June speech with the road map would reward the Palestinians prior to their having fought and eradicated terror. This would constitute a grave error, for it is only now that we can finally discern the fruits of the Israeli achievements in its war against terror. Besides the victory over terrorism, Israel's main objective is to make the Arab states understand that they will achieve nothing from Israel through terror.

The road map rejects terror as a tool for political gain, and promises to reward the Palestinians if they succeed in halting it. A forced adoption of the road map means regression, broadcasting to the Arabs that terror will be rewarded. As such, it is a historical and moral travesty.

Israel's efforts over the last two and a half years of war have planted the first seeds of change in Palestinian consciousness. Adoption of the road map could reverse all these gains, and Israel could find itself back in a situation in which the Palestinians are convinced that force is their ultimate tool.

Israel's second post-war challenge is to convince the United States not to stop after Iraq. Otherwise, here in the Middle East the Hizballah will continue to flourish, the Iranians will retain their missiles and their weapons of mass destruction, and Syria will remain as the capital of terrorism.

A democratic Iraqi island of peace in an ocean of hostile forces such as Iran, Syria, and the Hizballah will not ensure America's triumph. Success in Iraq alone is inadequate to ensure victory against terror and success in creating a New Middle East.

America must pressure Syria into withdrawing its support for Hizballah and then crushing it.

The second long-range threat to Israel is from non-conventional missiles from Syria and Iran. Israel will have to do whatever is required in order to protect itself from Syrian and Iranian military capabilities.