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News and views on Israel, Zionism and the war on terrorism.

January 09, 2003

Here's how and why the Palestinian violence will end

Steven den Beste writes in USS Clueless
After we take Iraq, it's virtually certain that there will be a revolution in Iran, and we will be much less friendly with the Saudis and will be much more forceful in making them cease to provide money to support terrorism everywhere (such as in Kashmir, as well as with the Palestinians). Saudi danegeld will end, at the point of an American bayonet if no other way. And if Syria doesn't collapse in short order, it will definitely make reforms because it's top-of-the-American-menu for the next gulp after Iraq. The US will be much better placed thereafter to make various Arab governments offers they pretty much cannot refuse, and part of that will involve a cutoff of funding for the Palestinians.

The flow of money won't drop to zero but it will be drastically reduced, and all the competing Palestinian groups will be seriously crippled.

On the other hand, to take Iraq we need at least temporary cooperation from several Arab nations and a vigorous Israeli response now to the Palestinian attacks could derail that. So the Israeli government has been practicing restraint, because it quite correctly understands that doing so is in its own long-term best interests.

Once the majority of the funding for the terrorist campaign has been cut off (including, one would hope, from Europe) then it leaves those organizations with far fewer resources with which to do good deeds. They will still be able to maintain the terrorist campaign, though even that will be reduced (for a number of reasons).

And as the situation for the common Palestinian continues to get worse, and as he sees Arabs continue to lose everywhere, then it will become apparent that Hamas and Hizbollah and Fatah and the rest are all arguing about who sits at the head of the table in the dining room of the sinking Titanic.

With a cutoff of foreign aid, and with Israel no longer restrained once the US has conquered Iraq and no longer needs Arab support, the plight of the common Palestinian is going to take a dramatic turn for the worse in the next few months.
I think so too, but he says it better.